Options for the TUDM CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030

tanahairdefence.blogspot.com 

During the recent 63rd anniversary of TUDM, the RMAF chief Gen Ackbal Samad in his speech explained that the TUDM CAP55 plan is divided into 3 Phases. Phase 1 is to be from 2021-2030, Phase 2 2030-2045 and lastly Phase 3 2046-2055. The 3 phases is to be planned separately from each other. Below are the excerpts of the interview for the 63rd anniversary of TUDM published in Kosmo! and Utusan Malaysia newspapers.

As stated in TUDM CAP55, basic planning (asas perancangan) needs to consider:

1. Kemampuan (affordability)

2. Tepat pada masa (timeliness)

3. Efektif (effective)

4. Realistik (realistic)

 

I have created a very basic plan (it is just something I created on my own in my free time basically) for TUDM CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030 that takes into consideration of all the 4 points above. The most important thing in my opinion is for the plan to have a clear focus of the operational outcome. The operational outcome for TUDM CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030 should be:

 

1. Fighters - To have 24h QRA capability for both west and east Malaysia. Clear CAS, Strike, Maritime Strike and Air Superiority capability goals. To be able to provide air cover of TLDM and TD operations. To create a viable second strike capability in case of any atttack to Malaysia.

 

2. C4ISR air - Information superiority and sharing from the air; of the air, marine and ground domain. Ability to jam and degrade enemy radar and communication ability. This capability would be provided by MPA, UAS, AEW&C and EA systems. TUDM should have its own MPA, UAS, AEW&C and EA systems before 2030. For MPA we should be able to find a small-boat sized target anywhere in Malaysian EEZ within 24 hours, and also support ASW sub hunting along with TLDM frigates. For UAS, we should be able to deploy 4 continuous orbits of MALE UAV. For AEW&C and EA we should be able to deploy this within a reasonable amount of early notice. Non-kinetic attack capability of EA system will be something we would be able to use frequently in grey area conflicts that is short of an all out war.

 

3. C4ISR ground - clear 24h information picture of Malaysian airspace from ground-based air defence radars. Seamless connection with civilian ATC system. Able to deploy during peacetime QRA scramble on time to intercept unidentified flying objects in Malaysian airspace and EEZ. The current 6 ground based long range radars (LRR) is to be increased to 9, to give a comprehensive air picture coverage. In CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030, all 9 LRR should be in service, while obsolescence replacement of current operational radars to be implemented in CAP 55 Phase 2 2031-2045. In CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030, the additional 3 LRR is to be filled with 1 from the LRR tender, and another 2 is to be covered with TPS-77 MRR from US Government Grant.

 

4. Helicopter - CSAR and SF capability. Most transport duties and VIP helicopters passed down to Army PUTD.

 

5. Transport - Strong airbridge between east and west Malaysia, ability to support the deployment and sustainment of 10 PARA Brigade.

6. Medium Range - Ground based air defence (MERAD). This is something I disagreed with the CAP55 plan. In my opinion all ground-based air defence systems should be under the Army GAPU (Grup Artilleri Pertahanan Udara) except for the current point defence units of TUDM and TLDM to defend their respective bases. So realistically TUDM should not be in the business of MERAD/MR-GBAD. A separate article on GAPU would explain further on my opinion.

7. PASKAU - TUDM SF unit in my opinion should remove all its current capability except for CSAR and FAC/JTAC. PASKAU should enhance the capability of FAC/JTAC behind enemy lines, and also raise FAC/JTAC detachments to every one of the army divisions to enhance the CAS effort in supporting the army. Other capability such as passenger aircraft hostage rescue could be left to PDRM and GGK.

8. Training - There will be an increase of the need to train pilots with the increase of aircraft numbers and also the introduction of UAVs. In my opinion any UAV larger than handheld ones should be flown by pilot-rated operators that understand aviation rules and able to properly interact with other manned aircraft and control towers in its operational vicinity. That means an increase in student pilots in ab-initio stage. A low performance trainer with low operating cost is needed to slot beneath the PC-7 MkII in the current system to cater for this. Every student pilot would go through this for say 50 flying hours before those destined for UAVs move on for their specific UAV type training. A new UAV-specific flying training center (FTC) should be set up for all pilots/operators of large UAVs. They will learn fundamentals of UAV flying at this FTC before going for specific type conversions at their respective operational squadrons.

tanahairdefence.blogspot.com 

Below is my plan for TUDM CAP55 Phase 1 2021-2030 with the development expenditure allocation of around USD1.6 billion for each of the 5 year Rancangan Malaysia's (RMK12 2021-2025 and RMK13 2026-2030). As I written here before, i feel that USD1.6 billion is a level that is logical and can be realistically funded by the government. 

A snapshot of the option for CAP55 Phase 2 2031-2045 which is elaborated in a separate post.

Priority list

1. MPA/ISR

2. MALE UAV

3. Additional EC225LP as partial nuri replacement

4. LCA / FLIT

5. AEW&C / EA

 

Just for a comparison

TUDM 1997 fighter fleet consisted of - 14 F-5E/F-5F/RF-5E, 18 MiG-29N/NUB, 8 F/A-18D, 18 Hawk 208, 10 Hawk 108, 10 MB339AM - around 78 fighters

Current TUDM fighter fleet (2021) consists of - 18 Su-30MKM, 8 F/A-18D, 13 Hawk 208, 5 Hawk 108 - around 44 fighters

TUDM 2030 fighter fleet could consist of - 22 Su-30MKM, 28 F/A-18D, 52 TA/FA-50M - around 102 fighters

 

 

Phaseout timeline

– MiG-29 retired

– Hawk 108/208 2025-2028 (35 years old)

– MB339CM grounded (15 years old)

– F/A-18 2035-2038 (40 years old)

– PC-7 MkII 2038-2040 (40 years old)

– C-130H 2041-2043 (60years/50years old)

– CN-235-220 MPA 2043-2048 (45 years old)

– SU-30MKM 2051-2055 (50 years old)

– EC725/225 2044-2048 (35 years old)

 

 

TUDM Skuadron 2030

 1 Skn 6x CN-235-220 MPA – Kuching

 2 Skn 1x Falcon 900, 2x Global 6000, 2x ACJ319, 1x CN-235-220 – Subang (Agong Flight, VIP Flight)

 3 Skn 8x PC-7 MkII - Lahad Datu (ISR and CAS operations)

 4 Skn 3x Global 6000 Erieye AEW&C, 1x Global 6000 HavaSOJ EW – Gong Kedak

 5 Skn 6x EC725, 3x EC225LP – Labuan

 6 Skn 16x FA-50M – Labuan (standing QRA East)

 7 Skn 13x Bayraktar TB2 - Kuching

 8 Skn 6x A400M – Subang

 9 Skn 16x FA-50M – Kuantan (standing QRA West)

 10 Skn 6x EC725, 3x EC225LP – Kuantan

 11 Skn 13x Bayraktar TB2 - Gong Kedak

 12 Skn 22x SU-30MKM – Gong Kedak (4x detachment Labuan)

 14 Skn 6x C-130 – Labuan

 15 Skn 12x TA-50 (3FTC) – Kuantan (LIFT)

 16 Skn 6x PC-24 (MECU) - Subang

 17 Skn 14x F/A-18C Butterworth - future 5th Gen MRCA squadron

 18 Skn 14x F/A-18D – Butterworth, future 5th Gen MRCA squadron

 19 Skn 8x TA/FA-50M - Kuantan (Aggressor training/Smokey Bandits Aerobatic Team)

 20 Skn 6x C-130 – Subang

 21 Skn Inactive

 22 Skn Inactive 

 1 FTC 24x PC-7 MkII, 18x P2002 Sierra Mk2 – Alor Setar

 2 FTC 5x EC120 – Alor Setar

 4 FTC (UAV) – Gong Kedak

Transfer

2x S-70 VIP to Army PUTD (to be a part of the 12th Infantry Brigade - Ceremonial)

 

 tanahairdefence.blogspot.com 

Some explanations of the points above

- Additional Su-30

To enable us to get the best out of our Flanker fleet, we should preferably get like 4 more used Su-30 from IAF. This would be bartered by giving IAF 12 of our retired MiG-29N, plus offering IAF to pay for the overhaul of some of their C-130J fleet at Airod. A win-win situation IMO for both IAF and TUDM. The target would be to have 12 operational Su-30MKM at Gong Kedak, 4 Su-30MKM detachment at Labuan (rotated regularly with those in Gong Kedak), leaving 6 Su-30MKM as standby reserve or in maintenance.

- F/A-18C as interim MRCA

Still waiting for more information about this, but the recent news of 17 Skuadron moving to Butterworth and also the explicit mention of the Kuwaiti Hornets in the interview with 2 newspapers means that this is still a very big possibility. This should be just for an interim requirement to plug the MRCA capability until we can acquire a proper stealthy MRCA in the CAP55 Phase 2 2031-2045. This should also not affect the acquisition of other capabilities such as LCA/FLIT. Australia sold 25 legacy hornets to Canada for about USD70 million, so I would expect that we need to fork out similar amount for something like 24 Kuwaiti hornets. A request to Australia for their Hornet simulators and spares would also be a good addition to the Kuwaiti Hornets. There will be very minimal upgrades that should be done to the Kuwaiti Hornets and TUDM should use them as is until it is to be retired around 2035.

 

- UAS (MALE UAV)

I understand that the tender for this has been closed. I have no idea of what was being offered, but I am in the opinion that the Bayraktar TB2 would be the best fit for TUDM. Now with even NATO countries going to get the TB2 (Poland and Latvia), combined with the low cost and the combat experience that we could learn by getting the TB2, we would be hard pressed to find a better MALE UAV for the price. It has the endurance of more than 24hours, with weapons already integrated with the system. Morocco is getting 13 TB2 for just USD70 million. Instead of just 1 squadron planned, it would be better for TUDM to have 2 MALE UAV squadrons, one each in west and east Malaysia. With 13 airframes per squadron, we could set up 4 operational orbits (24hr on station) of 4 airframes each. The remaining 10 airframes to be used for training, standby or attrition spares.

- LCA/LIFT

We should think of a long term plan for both the LCA/LIFT and also for our future 5th Gen MRCA requirement. My opinion is that we should sign a long term government-to-government deal with South Korea for both LCA/LIFT and also for MRCA (plus other hardware's for our ground, naval and coast guard forces). What we could do is to sign contract now for the FA/TA-50 (52 units) together with the LOI for the KFX (32 units) post 2030. The should be some manufacturing of components (such as probe for drogue type air-to-air refueling, weapon pylons, composite doors, control surfaces etc.) for both FA/TA-50 and KFX. I am looking at around USD1.8 billion for the FA/TA-50 (USD400 mil for 16 TA-50, and USD1.3 bil for 36 FA-50, budget in RMK12 and RMK13), and around USD2.4 billion for 32 KFX (budget in RMK14 and RMK15). Payment would be in the form of hard cash, LPG and Palm Oil, with offsets of more Korean investments in Malaysian electronic and petrochemical sector.

The FA/TA-50 is arguably the most ideal aircraft for the TUDM LCA/FLIT requirement, as its performance sits in the sweet spot for both combat and training requirements. For the FA-50, we should go for the latest Block 20 version, with AAR probe and BVR capability. We should also request the FA-50 to be integrated with AGM-84 Harpoon AShM, which we have in our inventory. For the TA-50, a basic version without radars would be fine, as all the embedded simulated radar, jammer, and weapons would still give a realistic training. Coupled with TA-50 extensive ground training aids like full flight simulator that can link to real TA-50 in the air, virtual reality simulator, PC based trainers, our pilots training would be greatly enhanced with the TA-50 system.

Hopefully a familiar view in Malaysian skies, FA-50 and F/A-18C. photo: USMC

- MPAs

I am with the opinion that we should just cancel our tender for new MPAs. I don't mind new MPAs if we have not started to modify our CN-235s into MPAs. As we already converting 3x of the CN-235 into MPAs, should concentrate our MPA efforts into converting 6x CN-235-220 into our most capable MPA platform, and forget about having to operate 2 different type of MPAs. With the miniaturization of many electronic systems, the small size of the CN-325 should not be an obstacle for an MPA with ASW capability (unlike say doing the same 10 years ago). 3 of the upgrades are to be partially paid for by US MSI (Maritime Security Initiative) Grant, with 3 more paid for by Malaysian government, plus additional budget by trading in our 3 B200T to IPTN. I would propose the CN-235 MPA fleet to be equipped with:

    - AIMS-ISR mission management system

    - Sentinent ViDAR optical surveillance system

    - EO turret (FLIR/L3 Wescam/Etc)

    - Leonardo USA Osprey 30 lightweight AESA radar

    - Leonardo USA SAGE ESM

    - AIS transceiver

    - CAE MAD-XR lightweight magnetic anomaly detector.

    - Ultra Electronics miniature sonobuoys

    - Leonardo ULISSES lightweight sonobuoy processor

    - air droppable SAR survival kit.

    - stub wings developed for the Jordanian AC-235, to carry torpedoes.

The overall Malaysian airborne maritime surveillance capability would be covered by a combination of TUDM MPAs, MMEA MPAs and various UAVs from TUDM,TLDM and MMEA.

- AEW&C and EW capability

The plan is to have Erieye NG radar on Bombardier Global 6000 airframe, basically a "Globaleye Lite" with only the Erieye ER radar system. It would have datalink capability to communicate with fighters, ships and land units seamlessly. The Global 6000 platform would also be used for the Aselsan HavaSOJ Electronic warfare and jamming system. This along with ground and naval based EW/EA systems, also with MKM's Knirti SAP-518 systems would provide a comprehensive EW warfare capability that could play a big part in future conflicts. To acquire 3x ERIEYE NG and 1x HavaSOJ in RMK13, with another 1x ERIEYE NG and 1x HavaSOJ in RMK14 (CAP55 Phase 2)

 

- Helicopter

Reduction to only 2 helicopter skuadrons and the unplanned retirement of the Nuri means that a lot of the helicopter tasks that is currently borne by TUDM will need to be taken up by Army's PUTD and also TLDM maritime operations helicopter (HOM) squadron. This would also mean that VIP helicopter tasks should also be passed on to PUTD. An all Blackhawk PUTD transport fleet of around 18-26 units (including former TUDM VIP Whitehawks) and the eventual 6 AW139 of TLDM HOM squadron would be an adequate support to the 18 EC735/EC225LP fleet of TUDM. Plenty of sources of used Blackhawks (South Korea, Australia, USA, Jordan to name a few) and is a low cost solution to replace all retired Nuris in Malaysian service. A separate article on PUTD would explain further of my opinion on this. As for the current EC725 fleet, I would prefer for TUDM to buy outright 6x more EC225LP from ex oil and gas fleets, rather than leasing it. Buying them outright would enable the maintenance to be done in house by TUDM personnel, as what is being done to the EC725. There should also be no need of a replacement for the EC725/E225LP until after 2040, when it could be replaced with advanced future vertical lift (FVL) platforms.

 tanahairdefence.blogspot.com 

- Conclusion

Hard times needs tough decisions. We really need to plan within what level of budget that is realistic for a force like TUDM to be a credible air force in the region. We would probably see our neighbors getting 5th gen fighters in numbers before 2030 (China is already mass producing the J-20, Singapore has the F-35B on order, and recently Vietnam is said to have signed on for the Su-57), but we need to stick to our priorities and get things that can give us a real increase in our overall defence capability. Proper planning and right decisions could create a much more capable TUDM in 2030 compared to what it is right now in 2021.