Options for the TUDM CAP55 Phase 2 2031-2045

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To plan for the TUDM CAP55 Phase 2 2031-2045, the plan should be a fluid one, that can be further tweaked when we approach and arrive at the phase. As of the date this is written, CAP55 Phase 2 will be 10-25 years in the future, of which a lot can happen between now and then.

One thing that should be done before we arrive at CAP55 Phase 2 is to have all the basic minimum capability of the air force be the foundation for further capability improvements. Before we arrive at CAP55 Phase 2, all the plans that is laid out in my writing about CAP55 Phase 1 must have been executed.

While CAP55 Phase 1 mostly involves getting all the basic tasks like having adequate fighters to undertake QRA, having robust MPA availability and getting radar coverage up to notch, CAP55 Phase 2 will mainly about the air force getting a new MRCA capability while embracing new technologies in UCAV and FVL aircrafts. The plan should also be adapted to the current security and regional diplomatic situation in the region at the time. By 2030 regionally we would see :

- China
Its rapid modernisation of its military will mean that it will become arguably the strongest military force in the region. Its air force will have hundreds of J-20 stealth fighters, multiples of H-20 stealth bombers than can easily reach Malaysia. PLA Navy 3rd aircraft carrier with FC-31 derived stealth fighter would also be fully operational. By this time it is probably just a matter of when, that Taiwan would be reunited with mainland China.

- Singapore
Rather than concentrate on its land forces superiority like in the years before, Singapore will instead devote its military development priority to ensure its economic survival intact by securing its sea lines of communication (SLOC) in South China Sea and Malacca Straits. By this time we could see Singapore able to deploy its F-35B on its own mini carrier.

- Indonesia
Indonesia has increased its defence budget to of 2021 to 2024 from USD20 billion to USD50 billion. By 2030 Indonesia would have spent more than USD100 billion on defence, which is probably more than 3x of what Malaysia can afford to spend within the same timeframe. With its planned move of its capital from Jakarta to Kalimantan, expect more of its military to be based in Kalimantan too. By this time, Indonesia should have received its own KF-21 Boramae fighters to complement its F-16, Sukhois and the expected Rafales and F-15s. TNI-AU aspires to be the biggest air force among the South East Asian nations by 2030.

- Thailand 

Thailand will start to get replacements for its older F-16s by this time. It will be expected that they will go and approved for F-35s. They will also be spending a lot of money to replace their C-130 fleet from 2021-2030 so there would be less for fighters etc.

- Philippines 

They are looking to go for Gripen C for their MRF requirement, which is not a lot of difference in performance to their current FA-50. By 2030 they are looking at having 1 squadron of Gripen C/D for MRF role, with 2 squadrons of FA-50. They are also looking at getting brand new C-130J to improve their logistics capability. 

- Vietnam 

Vietnam is said to have signed up for the Sukhoi Su-57 and looks likely to be a customer for the Sukhoi Checkmate LTS too if the project takes off. Expect Vietnam to open up to more western equipments by 2030. But bulk of its fighter force will remain mostly Russian, unless it can get its hands on latest western equipments. 

- Australia 

Australia will have its full fleet of F-35A operational by 2030. They will also probably be one of the earliest air forces to deploy unmanned UCAVs with their loyal wingman program. 

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Below is my plan for TUDM CAP55 Phase 2 2031-2045

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Priority list

1. MRCA replacement of the F/A-18 Hornets

2. AEW&C / EA additional units

3. LRR recapitalization of old Martello radar

4. Combat UAV

5. New Basic Trainer PC-7 MkII replacement

6. New Tactical Transport C-130H replacement

7. New MPA replacement of CN-235 MPA

8. CSAR FVL replacement of EC725/EC225LP

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TUDM Skuadron 2045

 1 Skn 6x NEW MPA – Kuching

 2 Skn 2x Global 6000, 2x ACJ319 – Subang (Agong Flight, VIP Flight)

 3 Skn 19x Bayraktar TB2 - Lahad Datu (ISR and CAS operations)

 4 Skn 4x Global 6000 Erieye AEW&C, 2x Global 6000 HavaSOJ EW – Gong Kedak

 5 Skn 10x CSAR Future Vertical Lift – Labuan

 6 Skn 16x FA-50M – Labuan (standing QRA East)

 7 Skn 19x Bayraktar TB2 - Kuching

 8 Skn 6x A400M – Subang

 9 Skn 16x FA-50M – Kuantan (standing QRA West)

 10 Skn 10x CSAR Future Vertical Lift – Kuantan

 11 Skn 24x New Combat UAV - Gong Kedak

 12 Skn 22x SU-30MKM – Gong Kedak (4x detachment Labuan)

 14 Skn 6x New Tactical Transport – Labuan

 15 Skn 12x TA-50 (3FTC) – Kuantan (LIFT)

 16 Skn 6x PC-24 (MECU) - Subang

 17 Skn 16x KF-21M Boramae - Kuching 

 18 Skn 16x KF-21M Boramae - – Butterworth

 19 Skn 8x TA/FA-50M - Kuantan (Aggressor training/Smokey Bandits Aerobatic Team)

 20 Skn 6x New Tactical Transport – Subang

 21 Skn Inactive

 22 Skn Inactive 

 1 FTC 24x New Basic Trainer, 18x P2002 Sierra Mk2 – Alor Setar

 2 FTC 5x EC120 – Alor Setar

 4 FTC (UAV) – Gong Kedak

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Some explanations of the points above

- KF-21 Boramae as the next MRCA

I am of the opinion that if we do get the FA-TA-50 for the LCA/FLIT requirement, the MRCA replacement program should go to the KF-21 Boramae. It is right now the most advanced fighter jet program other than the F-35, and knowing the korean steadfast attention to detail for their program deadlines, this is a program that is destined to succeed. There will be those who will question our neighbors Indonesia involvement in the KF-X project, but in my opinion that is not a big issue as our main security concern would be to secure the airspace over our South China Sea resources. The KF-21 is fully designed to Western/NATO standards, with an engine derived from those that powers our F/A-18 Hornet, compatible with western weapons and protocols that TUDM currently uses. It is also designed to have comparatively low acquisition cost, and also low operational cost with simple maintenance needs. The twin engine design would also be preferable as we would be mostly operating over the South China Sea. The Sukhoi Checkmate LTS looks enticing, but in the long run, the KF-21 would be a much better fit for TUDM in my opinion. 

KAI KF-21 Boramae. Picture : KAI

- Combat UAV

By 2030 some of the more advanced air forces like the Royal Australian Air Force would be expected to field their own Combat UAV (CUAV).  TUDM should follow closely the development of these CUAV from now and plan to field them by around the 2035-2040 time frame. The doctrine of CUAV use should also be studied, and CUAVs should be treated as expandable equipments, somewhat like missiles. CUAVs like the Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie is designed to be cheap enough to be expandable, with a production price of somewhere just around USD2-3 million each. CUAV programs that should be closely watched are :

• Boeing Australia Loyal Wingman
• Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie
• Bayraktar MIUS
• CASTC CH-7

Bayraktar MIUS. Picture : Bayraktar

Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie. Picture : Kratos

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- CSAR FVL

One of the reason that I am not for TUDM to buy any newbuild helicopter in CAP55 Phase 1 is because there is a big technological evolution going on in helicopter/vertical airlift technology. Any new helicopter we buy before 2030 would be eclipsed in performance by helicopters that is being developed by programs such as the US Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program. The FVL performance target is to have a helicopter with twice the speed and twice the range of a legacy helicopter such as the current Sikorsky Blackhawk. The FVL program is intended to be operational in the early 2030s. By around 2040, the EC725 CSAR helicopters would have been in TUDM service for about 30 years, so that would be a good time for them to be replaced with something like the Bell V-280 Valor.

Bell V-280 Valor. Picture : Bell

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- Conclusion

The CAP55 Phase 2 will begin in about 10 years from when this article is written, but that should not mean that we cannot plan it right now. Things that we plan for CAP55 Phase 2 will also affect what we are planning for CAP55 Phase 1. The plan should be fluid, and be adjusted accordingly to any new technological breakthroughs especially in case of UAV technologies. The plan will also need to be adjusted accordingly to the current regional situation, especially in relation to the security situation in the South China Sea.